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Article
Publication date: 8 August 2023

Mohd Ziaur Rehman and Karimullah Karimullah

The current study aims to examine the impact of two black swan events on the performance of six stock markets in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies (Abu Dhabi, Bahrain…

Abstract

Purpose

The current study aims to examine the impact of two black swan events on the performance of six stock markets in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies (Abu Dhabi, Bahrain, Dubai, Oman, Qatar and Saudi Arabia). The two selected black swan events are the US Mortgage and credit crisis (Global Financial Crisis of 2008) and the COVID-19 pandemic.

Design/methodology/approach

The performance of all the six stock markets are represented by their return and price volatility behavior, which has been measured by applying ARCH/GARCH model. The comparative analysis is done by employing mean difference models. The data is collected from Bloomberg on a daily frequency.

Findings

The response of two black swan events on the GCC stock markets has been heterogenous in nature. During the financial crisis, the impact was heavily felt on most of the stock markets in the GCC countries. It is revealed that the financial crisis had a negative significant impact on four of the six countries. Whereas during the COVID-19 crisis, it is revealed that there is no significant impact on four of the six selected stock markets. The positive significant impact is felt on two stock markets, namely, the Abu Dhabi stock market and the Saudi stock market.

Originality/value

The present investigation attempts to fill the gap in the literature on the intended topic because it is evident from the literature on the chosen subject that no study has been undertaken to evaluate and contrast the impact of the GFC crisis and COVID-19 on the GCC stock markets.

Details

Arab Gulf Journal of Scientific Research, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1985-9899

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 17 July 2023

Shabeer Khan, Mohd Ziaur Rehman, Mohammad Rahim Shahzad, Naimat U Khan and Lutfi Abdul Razak

There has been a burgeoning interest in exploring the impact of uncertainty factors on share returns. However, studies on the influence of global financial uncertainties on…

Abstract

Purpose

There has been a burgeoning interest in exploring the impact of uncertainty factors on share returns. However, studies on the influence of global financial uncertainties on emerging market sectoral indices are scarce. Thus, there is a need to have a thorough investigation of the connection between global financial uncertainties and emerging market sectoral indices. To fill this gap, using the theoretical framework of international portfolio diversification (IPD) and utilizing data from 2008 to 2021, this study examines the spillover connection between global uncertainty indices (GUIs) and leading sectoral indices of 28 emerging markets.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors employ the quantile spillover-based connectedness approach and minimum connectedness portfolio approach to explore the dynamic connectedness among sectoral indices and global uncertainty indices (GUIs) as well as portfolio implication.

Findings

The study found high connectedness among all indices, especially at higher and lower quantiles. Among GUIs, the authors find that stock market volatility (VIX) and oil volatility index (OVX) are strongly interconnected with all leading emerging markets' sectoral indices. Among sectoral indices, the linkage between the financial (F-Index), information technology (IT-Index), and consumer discretionary (CD-Index) sectors shows moderate interconnectedness. In contrast, the communication services (CS-Index) sector has low interconnectedness with the system. In terms of spillover effects, the authors find EVZ, OVX, and the IT sectors to be net recipients for the entire period. The authors also explored portfolio diversification benefits by employing a minimum connectedness portfolio approach. The cumulative returns' findings show a slight decline in the portfolio's value after 2010; during 2012, the pattern remained stable; from 2014 to 2020, the portfolio performed negatively, that is, underperformance due to different events in that period, including COVID-19. The Consumer Discretionary sector is found to be significant because of having the largest weight, 51%, in the portfolio during the study period.

Practical implications

The study suggests that investors should invest in the communication services sector as it is the least connected. However, the connectedness increases during COVID-19, which implies that it may be difficult for investors to benefit from IPD in a crisis period. Hence, to obtain the benefits from IPD, the evidence suggests that investors need to consider Consumer Discretionary sector while considering assets for investment.

Originality/value

The study's uniqueness is that the authors have investigated spillover between GUIs and 28 emerging markets sectoral indices by employing a quantile spillover-based connectedness approach and minimum connectedness portfolio approach with a special focus on portfolio implication.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 29 October 2021

Shabeer Khan, Baharom Abdul Hamid and Mohd Ziaur Rehman

The purpose of this paper is to empirically investigate the determinants and the impact of financial development on shadow economy in OIC countries and then compared with non-OIC…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to empirically investigate the determinants and the impact of financial development on shadow economy in OIC countries and then compared with non-OIC countries.

Design/methodology/approach

The study applies advanced panel GMM technique.

Findings

The study finds that macro-variables (unemployment, economic growth, money supply and foreign trade) and institutional variables reduce shadow economy both in OIC and non-OIC countries. The study also explores that financial development mitigates shadow economy; however, its impact is significantly less in case of OIC economies compared to the non-OIC countries.

Research limitations/implications

Since the focus of this study is OIC countries vs non-OIC countries, the research only includes discussion about shadow economy in 42 OIC member states and 99 non-OIC economies. The decision to restrict the study to 42 OIC economies and 99 non-OIC nations is due to the availability of data.

Practical implications

The study suggests that free market and good business environment in the formal economy are the keys to have less shadow economy. Good institutional setup and ease in regulations can attract firms and businesses from informal sector to the official economy, while political instability is one of the main factors for having large size of shadow economy.

Social implications

The OIC member countries should implement policies which improve accessibility to finance of every citizen of the country.

Originality/value

Despite the growing importance of shadow economy, the literature investigating determinants and the role of financial development in shadow economy is scarce. To the best of the authors' knowledge, there is no literature that examined the shadow economy in the context of OIC member countries. Furthermore, this study has covered a large number of OIC and non-OIC economics over time and across different groups using largest data and advanced panel GMM techniques.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 18 no. 10
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 7 January 2022

Shabeer Khan and Mohd Ziaur Rehman

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the relationship between macroeconomic fundamentals, intuitional quality and shadow economy.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the relationship between macroeconomic fundamentals, intuitional quality and shadow economy.

Design/methodology/approach

By utilizing data setspanning from 2004 to 2015 of 141 countries, the study has employed advanced panel technique, i.e. Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) method. In order to check consistency of the results, the study also used fixed effect and random effect for robustness.

Findings

The study finds that for the full sample, institutional quality has negative effect on shadow economy while macroeconomic fundaments effect shadow economy differently. After splitting the sample into Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) and non-OIC countries subsamples, it observes same influence of macroeconomic fundaments and institutional quality on shadow economy, but the effect of macroeconomic fundaments and institutional quality on shadow economy is less observed for OIC countries. The results are found consistence by using different estimation methods.

Originality/value

The current literature has focused on estimating the size of shadow economy and literature linking the macroeconomic fundaments, institutional quality and shadow economy is scarce. Additionally, this study provides the evidence for cross comparison between OIC economies and non-OIC economies.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 49 no. 8
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

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